[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 06 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N7W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 TO
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N9W 4N21W 2N27W 2N34W 2N41W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH WAS
IN NORTH MEXICO SIX HOURS EARLIER NOW IS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
BEYOND 32N. 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN MEXICO NEAR
26N103W. THE CENTRAL GULF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD A BIT...NOW IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF.
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA AND
MINNESOTA WITH THIS GULF RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE PASSES OVER FLORIDA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE RIDGE
THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 20N63W...NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...TO WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS NORTH OF 20N60W 16N68W
18N72W COVERING PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE BASE OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES 15N66W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE AREA...PART OF THE FEATURE WHICH COVERS THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 50W AND
80W NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA FROM 06/0300 UTC SHOWED MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS EVERYWHERE EAST
OF 70W...AND MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 70W AND 80W
MIXED WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOSTLY SOUTH OF 15N. MIDDLE
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 1001 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N63W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM
THIS LOW CENTER CURVES TO 27N58W 22N60W...CURVING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO TO WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN A LINE WITHIN
25 TO 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N52W 22N49W 24N46W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N15W...FROM THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS TO 25N19W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 32N34W TO 21N41W AND
13N53W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT



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