[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 06 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N8W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N8W 4N13W 3N20W 3N25W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A NORTHERN MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N107W TO 21N112W 17N112W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MEXICO
BETWEEN THE GULF COAST AND 105W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N103W IN MEXICO TO 1005 MB LOW CENTER NEAR
31N110W IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR
MEXICO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS IOWA WITH THIS GULF RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE PASSES OVER FLORIDA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONE SURFACE
RIDGE THROUGH THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER 33N85W TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N94W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N85W TO SOUTH FLORIDA
TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 20N66W...NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...TO NORTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN JAMAICA. TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM NORTHERN JAMAICA...CURVING TO 17N80W 16N85W AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 19N WEST OF 83W. THE BASE OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES 17N68W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE AREA...PART OF THE FEATURE WHICH COVERS THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 50W AND
80W NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA FROM 06/0300 UTC SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS EVERYWHERE EAST OF
70W...AND MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 70W AND 80W MIXED
WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOSTLY SOUTH OF 15N. MIDDLE LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 1004 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N65W. COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW CENTER
CURVES TO 28N62W 24N62W BEYOND 20N66W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH
32N15W...JUST EAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO THE MOROCCO COAST
NEAR 27N15W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 32N34W 27N37W TO 21N42W AND
16N50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N.

$$
MT


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