[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 010231
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH LEE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXISTS...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY WE WILL ASSUME A CENTER
STILL EXISTS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A NEW AND
EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THE DEGREDATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN...LEE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AND AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 36
HOURS AND DISSIPATES LEE AFTER 72 HOURS. IF THE SATELLITE PATTERN
DOES NOT IMPROVE SHORTLY...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS.

LEE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER
DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/09. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER LOW
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN SLOW AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN FACT...THE GFS STALLS THE DEPRESSION BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0300Z 31.2N  49.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.2N  48.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 33.0N  48.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 33.8N  48.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  48.7W    25 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 35.5N  49.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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