[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
LEE AT 31/2100 UTC.  IT IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 49.7W...MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC. CONVECTION IS ALL
E OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 47W-50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
17N42W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT.   AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW...HOWEVER...THE
LOW HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA...ALONG
78W/79W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 76W-78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
78W-82W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N24W 13N40W 10N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 12W-17W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
26W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
39W-42W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 43W-46W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO 90W ALONG 27N.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN
80W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 90W-91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
32N78W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N90W.  UPPER AIR MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT
FOR THE TEXAS COAST.  EXPECT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW IN 24 HOURS AS
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE S OF JAMAICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
85W-90W.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED S OF CUBA NEAR
20N80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W.  T.S. LEE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N32W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
32N78W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT 26N67W.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N55W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR
20N45W PRODUCING SHEAR ON THE NEARBY SURFACE LOW.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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