[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 300830
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KATRINA HAS
SHEARED APART...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE NOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER OVER
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL REPORTS OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS.  HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN
NUMEROUS UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF 50-55 KT GUSTS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  BASED ON THIS...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
RISING TO 981 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.

THE CENTER OF KATRINA ISA A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION OF 015/16.  OTHER THAN
THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
KATRINA WILL BE STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING
THE FIRST 12 HR BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN UPDATE.

KATRINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 36 HR IS A
REFLECTION OF THE INCREASED FORWARD MOTION...NOT EXTRATROPICAL
RE-INTENSIFICATION.

EVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND
WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES.  INLAND FLOODING
AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 34.7N  88.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 37.2N  86.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 40.3N  82.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 43.7N  77.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 47.5N  71.4W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 53.0N  68.5W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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