[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 300231
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

KATRINA HAS WEAKENED FURTHER AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT THE SHIPS INLAND DECAY MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT IT MAY BE NEAR 50 KT.  DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT 4000 FT
FROM THE NWS/BIRMINGHAM RADAR ALSO ARE ROUGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
ESTIMATE.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND GFS MODEL FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT KATRINA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...AND BECOME INDISTINCT WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/19...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THIS GENERAL DIRECTION BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY LAGGING BEHIND ON THE FORWARD
SPEED...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BY 72 HOURS.

EVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND
WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES. INLAND FLOODING
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0300Z 33.5N  88.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 36.3N  87.1W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 39.4N  84.1W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 42.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  73.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 52.0N  68.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED


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