[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 282022
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

DATA FROM A NEW NOAA BUOY...41041...LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HAVE HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT A WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION
HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND IS LOCATED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS AND ONLY
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE
DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  SHIPS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE
CYCLONE TO 62 KNOTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE. THERE ARE SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS ROTATING
AROUND A LARGER GYRE AND ANY OF THEM...ESPECIALLY THE ONE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...COULD BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE PLACED ALONG 65 DEGREES WEST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 15.4N  46.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N  48.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N  50.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  53.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N  55.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N  58.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N  61.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  64.0W    35 KT


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net