[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 280249
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.0N  89.0W      40  X  X  X 40   BURAS LA           3 23  1  X 27
29.0N  89.8W       7 21  1  X 29   NEW ORLEANS LA     X 23  3  X 26
31.0N  89.8W       X 12  9  1 22   NEW IBERIA LA      X 18  4  1 23
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  7  6  1 14
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  4  4   GALVESTON TX       X  4  5  1 10
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   FREEPORT TX        X  2  3  2  7
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  1  X  2  3
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 85W       1  4  3  1  9
ST MARKS FL        X  1  3  3  7   GULF 29N 87W       6 12  1  X 19
APALACHICOLA FL    X  3  5  1  9   GULF 28N 89W      25  6  X  X 31
PANAMA CITY FL     X  5  5  2 12   GULF 28N 91W      13 14  X  X 27
PENSACOLA FL       X  9  7  1 17   GULF 28N 93W       2 12  1  1 16
MOBILE AL          X 12  7  1 20   GULF 28N 95W       X  3  2  X  5
GULFPORT MS        X 17  6  X 23

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
C FROM  7AM MON TO  7PM MON
D FROM  7PM MON TO  7PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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