[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 280245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA.  THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 86.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$


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