[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 260257
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY
NEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE
OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76
KNOTS.  BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS...STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG AND LARGE
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. THIS
SOUTHWEST DIP HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
HIGH WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KATRINA ON A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0300Z 25.5N  80.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.4N  81.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  83.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N  84.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 26.5N  84.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N  85.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  84.5W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     31/0000Z 37.0N  80.0W    25 KT...INLAND


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