[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 260255
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

25.5N  83.0W      45  X  X  X 45   FT MYERS FL       56  X  X  X 56
26.0N  84.0W      31  X  1  X 32   VENICE FL         37  X  X  X 37
26.5N  84.5W      22  3  1  1 27   TAMPA FL          19  2  2  1 24
MUSN 216N 826W     X  1  X  1  2   CEDAR KEY FL       5  8  4  3 20
MUHA 230N 824W     7  2  1  X 10   ST MARKS FL        X  5  5  7 17
MUAN 219N 850W     X  1  1  2  4   APALACHICOLA FL    X  6  6  6 18
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1  3  4   PANAMA CITY FL     X  3  5  8 16
MARATHON FL       53  X  X  X 53   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  2 11 13
MIAMI FL          99  X  X  X 99   MOBILE AL          X  X  1  9 10
W PALM BEACH FL   99  X  X  X 99   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  9  9
FT PIERCE FL      35  X  X  X 35   BURAS LA           X  X  X  9  9
COCOA BEACH FL     4  3  3  4 14   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  7  7
DAYTONA BEACH FL   1  4  4  5 14   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  4  4
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  2  5  6 13   GULF 29N 85W       2  8  5  5 20
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  1  7  8   GULF 29N 87W       X  2  5  9 16
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  1 10 11
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  6  6
KEY WEST FL       40  1  X  X 41   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  2  2
MARCO ISLAND FL   99  X  X  X 99

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM FRI TO  8AM SAT
C FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
D FROM  8PM SAT TO  8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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