[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 230257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB.  HOWEVER...
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO
THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST
A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS
QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS
AFTER LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES IS
280/7.  THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... AND ASSUMING THIS MOTION CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED MIGHT OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL.  JOSE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY... AND
BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0300Z 19.8N  96.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.9N  97.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 20.1N  98.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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