[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 222233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
615 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST ON WHAT
IS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOSE.  A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 54 KT... SUPPORTING ALMOST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE... WHICH
IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  ADDITIONALLY... THE POSITION OF THE
CENTER REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING MORE
SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 280/5.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LANDFALL SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.  THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE WIND RADII
FORECAST... BASED IN PART ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA... NECESSITATES
EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.

ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOWER MOTION... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2215Z 19.6N  95.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N  96.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N  97.1W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.1N  98.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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