[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 222105
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

...CORRECTED FOR POTENTIAL EARLIEST 10TH... NOT 11TH... STORM

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION VERY
SHORTLY TO HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE
DEPRESSION.  BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY...AND
HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT.  HOWEVER...ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE SYSTEM HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER.  THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FORMATION OF A
SEASON'S 10TH STORM ON RECORD.  RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.

THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS
SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS...AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD UNTIL IT
DISSIPATED.  GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND
THE GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE BAM OUTPUT...TAKING THE
CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WOULD BE
DELAYED...WITH MORE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...IF THE SYSTEM TOOK A
PATH FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2100Z 19.6N  95.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.9N  96.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.1N  98.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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