[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS NEAR 38.5N 56.3W AT
17/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON IRENE AND THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A
HURRICANE.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN 12 HOURS
...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE
OVER THE COOLER WATERS AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY 24
HOURS.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 37N-40N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...IS NEAR 16N57W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10
KT. THIS LOW CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N64W TO ITS NW.  THE
24 HOUR FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PRESENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE MOST RECENT TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
20W SOUTH OF 23N DRIFTING WESTWARD. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 17N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-23N
BETWEEN 18W-24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 30W-50W
MOVING W. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 87W-92W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N21W 10N30W 10N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 31W-34W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO DUE TO A 1016 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N78W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WITH CONVECTION
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 86W-90W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR
20N97W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR
28N89W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY N IN 24
HOURS PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
GULF.  CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
70W-77W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 80W-88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE ABC
ISLANDS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 69W-71W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER E HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W.
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
23N64W.  A COL AREA BETWEEN THE ABOVE TWO SYSTEMS IS BETWEEN
HAITI AND JAMAICA.  EXPECT CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N78W.  A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N53W
25N63W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N35W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND E OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W.  CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 23N64W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N53W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N15W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
W TO 20N50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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