[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.5N 61.6W...OR 830 NM SW OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...AT 16/2100 UTC MOVING E 8 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IRENE NOW HAS AN OBSCURED EYE FEATURE.  SHEAR HAS
SLIGHTLY ERODED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE CLOUD
ENVELOPE CONTRACTED A BIT.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM RADIUS OF 37N62W.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

A 1010 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N53W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF A BURST OF TSTMS. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 NM E OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND
IS CONSEQUENTLY UNDER 10-20 KT OF SWLY SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD REFORM WITHIN 24-36 HRS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 53W-55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS ALONG 18W S OF
22N.  A 1007 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N18W.  THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING W 5-10 KT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR OVER THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS INDICATED THAT A BACKWARD TILTED WAVE BEGAN MOVING OFF
THE COAST YESTERDAY MORNING.  PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW CENTER.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 21N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
AFRICAN DUST SURGE...AND IS TILTED SLIGHTLY NW/SE DUE TO
STRONGER TRADES NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 25N MOVING W
20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
CLOUD FIELD STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS. THE WAVE
HAS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE...AND WAS OBSERVED PASSING BOTH KEY
WEST AND MIAMI UPPER AIR SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 83W-89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
16N-22N BETWEEN 87W-92W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-89W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SRN MEXICO IS ALONG
95W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
95W-98W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N20W 10N25W 12N35W 8N42W 17N53W
13N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-32W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W.  THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALSO OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
28N88W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W.  SOME UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS SPREAD
OVER FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLANTIC...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY S OF 25N.
EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 28N.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
CONVECTION W OF 83W.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
62W-70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N74W.  CONVECTION IS MOVING W
OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA DUE TO THIS CIRCULATION.
SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W OVER
THE YUCATAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LEAST THRU THU. THE E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING TRADE SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC...
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.  A 1016 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N57W
25N62W 21N65W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 48W-55W.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N31W.  RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 50W. A
SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST IS LOCATED BENEATH THIS RIDGE AND EXTENDS
GENERALLY E OF 40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.  A SMALL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N61W.
THIS CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING SW SHEAR OVER THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
TEN NEAR 16N53W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 30N49W.
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
25N35W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR
20N10W.

$$
FORMOSA


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