[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 15/0300 UTC
BASED ON INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT. HURRICANE IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.3N 69.2W AT
15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 355 MILES...308 NM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 325 MILES...282 NM...NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. IRENE EXHIBITS A SMALL EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION TO THE N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 18N MOVING W 5-10 KT
WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS. SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS OF 14N32.5W.

A 1008 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
14.5N49W-16.5N46W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W
15-20 KT. SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 18N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A BAND
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 13N83W-15N83.5W-
16.5N86.5W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 15N16W 12N26W 9N36W 14N46W 10N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 15N AND E OF LINE
6N22W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 41W-47W AND BETWEEN
52W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N88W WITH A
SECOND LOW ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N83W. THIS IS
GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
COVERS THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 29N/30N TO A 1019 MB
HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA PRODUCING LIGHT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA HAVE
MOVED INTO THE SW GULF AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 86W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER S
LOUISIANA N OF 28N FROM 91W-93W. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 86W-96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LOW IN THE GULF EXTENDS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W. AN INDUCED MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA E TO THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA ALONG 12N W OF 72W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST E OF LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. ALL
OF THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE PROVIDING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES W OF
66W...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD HIGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 50W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR HURRICANE IRENE. THIS IS
GIVING THE AREA MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER AIR TO ALL BUT THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS
BEING PUSHED N. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
FOUND FROM THE ISLANDS WESTWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA.
SURFACE RIDGING IS RE-ENFORCING THE DRY AIR WITH A 1021 MB HIGH
LOCATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N44W SW TO THE MID/UPPER LOW E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N61W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING
FAST MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
53W-59W MOVING SW NEAR 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS N
OF THE REGION...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 25N55W...AND A SECOND 1016 MB LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N47W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
22N52W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N26W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE AREA W OF 40W. THIS IS BRING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
CLEARLY SHOW AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST MOVING OFF THE COAST FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 30W. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THAT AREA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 43W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N30W.

$$
WALLACE




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