[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 141437
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

IRENE IS EXHIBITING A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST.  MEASUREMENT OF THE BANDING USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
EASILY SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT...IN
TERMS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD NOT
INHIBIT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER BEYOND
THAT TIME VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
STORM MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THEREFORE IRENE HAS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  ONE MORE AERIAL
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO IRENE IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z TODAY TO
CHECK THE POSITION AND INTENSITY.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HEADING HAS BENT A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT AND CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
020/10.  IRENE HAS CROSSED THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
BEGUN RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.

BY 3 DAYS THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF IRENE SHOULD MERGE WITH A LARGER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 33.6N  69.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 35.1N  69.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 37.0N  67.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 38.6N  64.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 39.7N  61.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 42.5N  54.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 49.5N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/1200Z...ABSORBED

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