[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS NEAR 32.6N 70.3W AT
14/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 320 MILES/515 KM WEST OF BERMUDA...AND
ABOUT 350 MILES/565 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN
NORTH CAROLINA. IT WAS MOVING NORTH 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS NEAR 13.6N 46.4W AT
14/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1055 MILES/1695 KM EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB AND
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC OR MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. A SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHEARED THE
DEPRESSION TO THE POINT THAT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS
EMERGED CLEARLY FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO ITS NORTHEAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE LATEST EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE TO CLEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WAS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13.5N TO 16N BETWEEN
29W AND 30W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS WAVE
AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAKENING RIDGE.
WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W
AND 68W ARE IN AN AREA OF SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW...EAST OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NEAR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND WEST OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS APPROACHING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA ALONG 74W AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ RUNS ALONG 10N/11N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IN THE AREA ALSO
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 17N17W 12N28W...12N33W 12N44W...12N48W 11N60W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS IN COASTAL AFRICA
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 12W AN 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
6N AT THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH
PROBABLY ABOUT ONE WEEK AGO WAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND THEN
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN WHICH TRAVELLED NORTHWARD
NEAR 30N72W...AND THEN HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW
SOUTHWESTWARD...FINDS ITSELF IN THE FLORIDA KEYS/STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS FLORIDA AND ITS GULF WATERS SOUTH
OF 30N EAST OF 85W. WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF WATERS...ENCOUNTERS
THE REMAINING BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW...AND THEN EMPTIES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRETTY FLAT WITH ONLY
THE 1014 MB ISOBAR OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THIS MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS/
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N77W...ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN AN AREA THROUGH
WHICH THE ITCZ IS PASSING...AND IN AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 74W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...STILL DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...EVERYTHING IS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 30N WEST OF
50W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. ONE SURFACE
1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N36W AND A 1016 MB SECOND
CENTER IS NEAR 27N47W. A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
IN BETWEEN THE 27N47W LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM IRENE NEAR 29N60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W.

$$
MT



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