[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 140910
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

A SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHEARED THE DEPRESSION TO
THE POINT THAT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS CLEARLY EMERGED FROM
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THIS LOW
LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST
12 HOURS OR SO... BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT HAS BEGUN
MOVING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  THERE IS
ESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...  AND THE
ONLY NEARBY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT 100 N MI DOWNSHEAR.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME CLOSER
TO THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... THE DEPRESSION COULD
LOSE ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER... AS IRENE DID...
THIS CYCLONE COULD PROVE TENACIOUS ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH COULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36
HOURS.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN... IT SEEMS LIKELY IT
WILL RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WHILE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.... AS AGREED UPON BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS... AS INDICATED IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES... UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND IT COULD STILL EVENTUALLY REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 13.6N  46.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.3N  47.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.4N  48.4W    25 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  49.7W    25 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N  51.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N  54.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N  57.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N  60.5W    40 KT


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