[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 140857
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

IRENE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS AS COLD AS
ALMOST -80C.  HOWEVER... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS NOT STRENGTHENING... AND IN
FACT IT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.  THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BEEN 62 KT... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999
MB.  ALSO... DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 TO 3.5.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT.  THE STORM COULD STILL REGAIN A
LITTLE STRENGTH... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER INDICATES IT
REACHING HURRICANE STATUS.  THIS FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT WHILE IRENE SLID A LITTLE TO THE
WEST LATE LAST NIGHT... IT HAS NOW ESTABLISHED A NEARLY DUE NORTH
MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  IRENE IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING
AND THE NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
ONLY A LITTLE BIT FASTER.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IRENE WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND THEN MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 32.6N  70.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 34.1N  69.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 36.1N  68.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 37.7N  65.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 38.9N  62.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 41.5N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 47.5N  46.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM


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