[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 140838
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST WED AUG 17 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

36.1N  68.4W      28  3  X  X 31   ST JOHN NB         X  X  1  4  5
37.7N  65.9W       X 17  3  X 20   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  5  5
38.9N  62.8W       X  2 11  3 16   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  2  5  7
BERMUDA            X  3  3  1  7   HALIFAX NS         X  X  1  6  7
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  1  1  1  3   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X  9  9
PROVIDENCE RI      X  1  1  1  3   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X  6  6
NANTUCKET MA       X  2  3  1  6   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  7  7
HYANNIS MA         X  1  3  1  5   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  4  4
BOSTON MA          X  X  2  1  3   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  4  4
PORTLAND ME        X  X  1  1  2   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X  5  5
BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  1  3  4   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  X  3  3
EASTPORT ME        X  X  1  3  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
C FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
D FROM  2AM TUE TO  2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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