[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 091446
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE WITH THE
SYSTEM LOOKING BETTER THAN IT DID 6 HOURS AGO.  WOULD PREFER TO SEE
A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE UPGRADING IRENE
TO A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS.

IRENE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
UPPER LEVELS WITH A TROF CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE SYSTEM.  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE MOTION OF
IRENE WILL BRING IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N AND 64W.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR.  THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT 36HRS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
TAKING IT GENERALLY ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH TIME
WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND NOTED.  THE GFS WAS QUITE THE OPPOSITE
SHOWING THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS IT TOOK A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK.  WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARDS THE FORMER SOLUTION AND FOR NOW
BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEL TREND.

FORECASTER KORTY


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1500Z 22.3N  53.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 22.7N  55.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 23.6N  57.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  60.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 26.3N  62.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 27.7N  64.6W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 29.1N  66.2W    55 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  67.1W    55 KT


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