[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 53.6W AT
09/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NO LONGER EXPOSED
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
DRY UPPER AIR SURROUNDING IRENE HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 90
NM OF LINE 21N53W-25.5N50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK WAVE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY AIR THUS LIMITING CONVECTION TO WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY UPPER DRY AIR. BROAD
SIGNATURE CURVATURE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N21W 11N33W 9N39W 10N45W
8N55W 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-38W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
47W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN
37W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE N GULF TO NEAR 27N92W WITH A SURFACE LOW TO THE E OVER THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
S TO 23N86W. A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...THUS DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N FROM 89W-95W. A
MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF N
OF 25N E OF 89W. THE MID/UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN HAS SETTLED ALONG THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING E OVER CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE MID/UPPER LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS CUBA TO 22N78W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 18N. SE OF THE TROUGH IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W COVERING THE AREA S OF 18N W OF 66W TO
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NW AREA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS W OF 83W. THE ITCZ AXIS RUNS ALONG THE N COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA...WITH A SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA ARE TOGETHER GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 75W. E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY UPPER E FLOW AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR. THE ONLY
ACTIVITY E OF 75W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
W ATLC W OF 78W. STRONG MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N73W
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S TO THE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W OF 76W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 79W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC IS NEAR 20N61W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW TO
26N64W AND COVERING THE AREA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC N OF 13N W
OF 55W KEEPING THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 25N FROM
50W-65W UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...EXCEPT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH T.D. IRENE. THIS IS THE AREA OF DRY AIR IS ONE
OF THE FACTORS IN PREVENTING IRENE FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N40W SW TO JUST NE OF T.D. IRENE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 19N24W...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ALONG THE ITCZ. AT
THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SPLIT BY T.D. IRENE WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC FROM A 1023 MB HIGH JUST N OF BERMUDA TO
21N64W AND A RIDGE IN THE E ATLC FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N42W
TO 20N31W.

$$
WALLACE


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