[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 08/2100 UTC IS NEAR
40.8N 46.1W MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HARVEY IS LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND
THE WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO NORTH OF
THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 41N-43N
BETWEEN 45W-48W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE AT 08/2100 UTC IS NEAR 22.5N 51.5W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 49W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
65W-67W...AND IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 62W-64W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 12N33W 8N40W 10N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N85W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
22N86W.  AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA
FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF
NEAR 24N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS.  FURTHER N
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM
29N-33N BETWEEN 94W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 28N85W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 89W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT N TO ALABAMA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER
THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN... A 1006 MB LOW
IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
77W-84W.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
81W-84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER INLAND CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 76W-79W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W.  FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH... WEST OF THE CENTER...IS ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
SOUTH OF 18N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1022 MB HIGH IS NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N68W.  T.D. IRENE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS FURTHER NE AT 31N42W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS ALONG 65W FROM 18N-30N.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N41W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 24N50W.  THIS TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SHEAR OVER T.D.IRENE.  ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 14N37W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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