[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 082051
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

HARVEY IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24 CELSIUS OR LESS
AND LACKS CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS ASYMMETRIC AND IS GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A MIDLATITUDE
CLOUD BAND.  EVEN THOUGH IT IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... EX-HARVEY
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

HARVEY HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17.  WHILE THE STORM IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS MEANDER JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE
UKMET IS THE OUTLIER TAKING HARVEY QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BEYOND DAY 3... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/2100Z 40.8N  46.1W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 41.9N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 43.3N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  38.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 44.6N  36.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 44.5N  32.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 44.0N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1800Z 43.5N  30.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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