[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IS CENTERED NEAR 37.8N 51.5W AT 08/0300
UTC MOVING NE AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SW OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS DUE TO TO A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
TO THE SW OF THE STORM PROVIDING SW SHEAR. HARVEY WILL SOON BE
MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MOVES MORE SLOWLY NE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWING. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 38N-42N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 47.7W AT 08/0300 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NO LONGER EXPOSED. IRENE IS EMBEDDED
IN NW SHEAR AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR...THUS DOES NOT LOOK TROPICAL
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE 20.5N48W-23N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 45W FROM 20N-23N.
 `
...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE WITH LITTLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 19N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR...THUS THE SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IS NOT READILY APPARENT. WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
BARBADOS AND WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM DOMINICA TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 97W IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND NO
LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 11N26W 7N36W 10N46W 13N58W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 23W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE UNITED STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MISSISSIPPI SW TO 27N90W WITH A SURFACE LOW
TO THE E OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N86W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 24N89W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING GENERATED OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY TWO MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS N/S OVER MEXICO PRODUCING N TO
NW UPPER FLOW OVER THE W GULF. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S
MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N87W. DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LOW
JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...AND FAR W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E CUBA
NEAR 20N75W SW ACROSS JAMAICA TO 17N80W THEN NW TO THE NE TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
AXIS. S OF THE TROUGH IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
NW COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N FROM HAITI TO JUST W
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DUE TO THE DIFFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE ITCZ
AXIS RUNS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA...WITH
A SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ARE TOGETHER GENERATING
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N FROM 75W-79W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W. E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING E TO NE UPPER FLOW E OF 64W AND N FLOW
FROM 64W-71W. THIS IS LEAVING THE AREA W OF 70W UNDER MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. ONLY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N E OF 64W DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N76W WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IS BEING PUSHED SW BY
A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 200/250 NM RADIUS. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST W OF
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER S FLORIDA S OF 26N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS N OF 23N W OF 74W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA COASTS. UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N57W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NNW TO NEAR 30N65W. THIS IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW ATLC ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE THE AREA N OF 10N FROM
50W-65W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. THIS IS THE AREA
OF DRY AIR IS ONE OF THE FACTORS IN PREVENTING IRENE FROM
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N40W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO JUST
NE OF T.S. IRENE. DUE TO THE DRY UPPER AIR...NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE GENERATED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N26W...THUS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND THE ITCZ SO FAR S. AT THE
SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SPLIT BY T.S. HARVEY WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC FROM A 1022 MB HIGH JUST NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N67W TO 20N63W AND A RIDGE IN THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N36W TO
20N30W.

$$
WALLACE


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