[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 061456
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 09Z INDICATES WINDS OF 50-55 KT...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS BASIS.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
HARVEY COULD RE-INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE MOTION HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTH...010/6...AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MIGHT ACTUALLY
HAVE MEANDERED TO THE NORTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING
EASTWARD.  THIS SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND FAVORS THE GFDL OVER THE GFS INITIALLY...AS THE MOST RECENT RUN
OF THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER CAPTURED THE RECENT LEFT TURN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 33.9N  56.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 34.9N  56.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 36.2N  55.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 37.7N  53.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 39.3N  51.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 42.0N  44.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 43.0N  36.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/1200Z 45.5N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net