[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 052026
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

HARVEY CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS ON
SATELLITE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL ZONE.
HARVEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND AN
EXPANSION OF THE CIRCULATION AS A NEW MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. THEREFORE...HARVEY WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HARVEY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A LITTLE
RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD
THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  57.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 32.9N  56.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 34.1N  55.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 36.1N  54.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 38.0N  53.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 42.0N  47.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 45.9N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1800Z 49.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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