[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 042032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

HARVEY CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH MARKED
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX SOME...AND HARVEY
COULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.

HARVEY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...BUT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...SINCE
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT.
BEYOND 3 DAYS...A NEW SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. BOTH THE
SHORT TERM DECREASE IN SPEED AND THE LATER ACCELERATION ARE
SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 32.4N  61.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 32.7N  60.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 33.2N  58.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 34.0N  57.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 34.5N  56.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 37.0N  53.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 40.5N  49.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 43.0N  44.0W    25 KT


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