[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 042030
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

YES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A BURST OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS
EARLY FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IN
FACT...IT COULD REFORM ANYWHERE WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS
MAKES TRACKING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE
OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH 5 DAYS...GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE. NOW THAT WE HAVE A
DEPRESSION...THE 18Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL PROBABLY GIVE US BETTER
GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 12.7N  34.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 13.0N  36.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.5N  38.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.0N  40.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  42.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 15.5N  46.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  49.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  53.0W    75 KT


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