[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 041431
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

THERE HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
SINCE YESTERDAY AND MOST OF THE HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ARE NO LONGER PRESENT. HARVEY
LOOKS FULLY TROPICAL TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND
ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN THE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN FORECAST FOR HARVEY
TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS...AWAY
FROM BERMUDA.  AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY MOVES
EASTWARD...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND HARVEY
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A NEW APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO
SPEED UP AGAIN.  THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 32.0N  63.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 32.2N  61.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 32.6N  59.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  58.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 33.5N  57.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 35.0N  54.9W    40 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 38.0N  51.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    25 KT


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