[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WEAK...BROAD MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE
WITH SAHARAN DUST MOSTLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
12N24W-11N28W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 20N60W-16N65W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE IS BENEATH THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SO THE WAVE
SIGNATURE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 10N28W 8N40W 8N57W 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 4N36W TO THE AXIS NEAR 8N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
27W-33W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 58W-60W...AND WITHIN
A 75/90 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N52W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-49W AND FROM 7N-14N E OF
23W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ESE INTO THE W GULF OVER S TEXAS TO
24N90W. A MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E GULF N OF 23N E OF 89W INTO THE
W ATLC. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST FROM 84W-97W. UPPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE NE GULF COAST TIL THE END OF THE WEEK AND WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN
IS CENTERED NEAR 17N80W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA
FROM 73W-86W. DIFFLUENCE OVER CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST OF W CUBA W OF
80W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE
UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N  TO INLAND OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N
W OF 76W. THIS IS JUST TO THE W OF THE FOCUS OF CONCERN...WHICH
IS A CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC FROM
23N-31N WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N73W...A SURFACE LOW TO THE SW
NEAR 25N69W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N68W
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO N ALONG 25N64W TO 32N67W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 63W-68W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 67W-70W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 33N43W...AND
A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 33N41W...SW TO A SECOND UPPER LOW
NEAR 27N55W TO 24N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE BEYOND THE
REGION AND SSW TO 25N46W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N44W TO BEYOND
32N38W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW DIPS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC N
OF 17N FROM 38W-52W. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS ARE CALM WITH
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 19N22W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 38W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WHILE THE TROPICS ARE REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
LARGE PLUME OF AFRICA DUST COVERS THE ATLC S OF 20N E OF 32W AND
THE PREVIOUS PLUME S OF 24N FROM 40W TO THE CARIBBEAN AND BEING
DRAWN N TO THE E OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW BETWEEN 30W-40W. THIS
DUST IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



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