[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020517
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE. YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER
YESTERDAY. THIS IS LEAVING THE ENVIRONMENT DRY WITH ONLY SMALL
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE 13N20W-11N27W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED INTO THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN BASED ON THE UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT TRINIDAD AND
BARBADOS. IT IS ALONG 62W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH WHICH IS MASKING THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE.
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER/CONVECTION ACTIVITY.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...THUS LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY SHOWER/CONVECTION
ACTIVITY.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER/CONVECTION ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 10N24W 7N36W 10N51W 12N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 36W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM S AND 30 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-34W...WITHIN
60 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-48W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 46W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ESE INTO THE W GULF NEAT THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER TO 23N91W. A MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E GULF N OF 23N E OF
89W INTO THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST E OF LOUISIANA TO
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NE GULF COAST TIL THE END OF THE WEEK AND WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC IS ALLOWING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO SPREAD HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IN THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 16N80W WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 73W-84W. DIFFLUENCE OVER CUBA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF CUBA. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 67W THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N
W OF 75W. THIS IS JUST TO THE W OF THE FOCUS OF CONCERN...WHICH
IS A CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC FROM
22N-30N WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N73W...A SURFACE LOW TO THE SW
NEAR 24N69W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N67W
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS N ALONG 25N64W TO 32N66W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 63W-70W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP
LAYERED LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 32N43W...AND A 1017 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 31N43W...WSW TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 28N56W TO
26N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE OUT OF THE REGION AND SSW TO
25N47W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
38W-42W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE SURFACE LOW N OF 30N FROM
42W-46W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW DIPS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC N
OF 15N FROM 40W-52W. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS ARE CALM WITH
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 18N20W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 37W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WHILE THE TROPICS ARE MOISTURE LADEN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LARGE
PLUME OF AFRICA DUST COVERS THE ATLC S OF 20N E OF 30W AND THE
PREVIOUS PLUME S OF 24N FROM 30W-60W THUS LIMITING CONVECTION TO
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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