[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 11N. CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO THE ANOTHER SURGE OF
SAHARAN DUST THAT CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH INVERTED-V CURVATURE BUT NOT
ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM W
OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-12N.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 63W-68W
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED AS THE WAVE NARROWS...THUS THE
AXIS APPEARS TO BE NEAR STATIONARY. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 9N28W 8N44W 14N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 20W TO THE COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 5N47W ACROSS THE AXIS TO 10N49W...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 64W...AND WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-34W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE ITCZ WITHIN 300 NM S OF
THE AXIS E OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W
LEAVING THE W GULF DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS S OF 26N FROM 90W-94W.
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N93W ENE INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N76W. A
SURFACE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO
32N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
GENERATED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST E OF TEXAS. SMALL...WEAK UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
FROM 82W-87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO AN UPPER LOW S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W
TO 12N78W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE E AND W CARIBBEAN.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N74W BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA TO 20N80W AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 OF THE
CUBAN COAST W OF 80W. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOT THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 79W AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NE
BEYOND 32N76W WITH N TO NE FLOW OVER THE W ATLC. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N71W SSW ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...EXTENDS FROM 26N67W TO THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W WHICH IS LAGGING BEHIND THE UPPER
FEATURE. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE N
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
TO 30N62W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 22N63W TO 26N66W
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE AREA WITHIN 175 NM
OF LINE 19N62W-29N70W. A SURFACE LOW IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE S PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N45W AND
THE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NE BEYOND 32N42W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
LINE 25N44W-33N37W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
SURFACE LOW. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW DIPS INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC N OF 15N FROM 36W-52W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N23W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS. THIS IS LEAVING THE
NE ATLC UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WHILE THE TROPICS
IS MOISTURE LADEN. HOWEVER...A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICA DUST COVERS
THE ATLC S OF 24N FROM 20W-50W THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN
THE ITCZ. A STRONG SQUALL LINE FELL APART WHEN IT REACHED THE
COAST AND NOW IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY
MOVING W AND IS ALONG 20W.

$$
WALLACE




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