[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 291436
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LISA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE MORNING AS INDICATED BY A DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND...AND BETTER DEFINED CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE APPEARANCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE
TYPE FEATURE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT LISA IS BECOMING STRONGER.
HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB WHERE 3.5 AND
3.0 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL KEEP THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 60 KT. OBSERVATIONS OF 45 KNOTS FROM SHIP ZCGH LOCATED
ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE CENTER AND 30 KNOTS FROM SHIP FQFL ABOUT 220
NM NE OF THE CENTER OF LISA WERE USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND
RADII.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LISA WILL HELP REDUCE SHEAR IN 12 HOURS ALLOWING
FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A
DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...LISA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE THROUGH 72 HOURS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL OVER COOLER
WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 29.7N  45.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 31.1N  46.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 35.0N  48.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 36.5N  48.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 40.5N  44.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 44.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/1200Z 45.0N  26.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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