[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 282037
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AN INDICATION OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
EARLIER TODAY ON BOTH MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES...THAT FEATURE
HAS BEEN TRANSIENT AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND
TAFB. THE STRONG SHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...IS FORECAST TO
RELAX AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING
THIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 26.4N  46.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  46.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  46.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 32.0N  47.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  48.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 38.0N  47.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 42.0N  40.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 43.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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