[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 28 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE ON 28/1500 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ROANOKE VIRGINIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.  JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL IS 999 MB OR 29.50 INCHES.
SEE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JEANNE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...
MARYLAND...DELMARVA PENINSULA...WEST VIRGINIA...
PENNSYLVANIA... AND NEW YORK.

TROPICAL STORM LISA IS CENTERED ON 28/1500 UTC NEAR 25.0N 47.1W
MOVING NORTH 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. LISA IS
MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SOUTH OF 18N... MOVING WEST 15 KT. IT IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 42W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
79W-84W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 8N20W 8N50W 11N65W 10N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
12W-18W...FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N86W 24N95W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN
85W-100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER HONDURAS NEAR
14N87W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-80W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-80W.  T.S. LISA DOMINATES THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N71W.  TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N50W TO 25N53W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N49W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 32N30W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
33N13W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE OVER W AFRICA AND THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAKING SOME AREAS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
ACTIVITY THEN OTHERS.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 20N13W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-25N E OF 20W.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
21N30W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-40W.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
16N49W.  SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 7N48W.

$$
FORMOSA



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