[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 27 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTER AT 27/1200 UTC NEAR 31.0N 83.8W OR
OR NEAR MOULTRIE GEORGIA...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W IN GEORGIA. IT APPEARS THAT
CYCLONICALLY  SWIRLING MULTILAYERED  CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS REMAIN IN FLORIDA NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

TROPICAL STORM LISA CENTER AT 27/0900 UTC NEAR 20.2N 46.2W...
OR ABOUT 1045 MILES/1685 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING NORTH 5 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
THE RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM DAKAR POINTED TO A WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THERE DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS...REACHING ITS CURRENT
POSITION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMERGING OFF THE AFRICA COAST
FROM 11N TO 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 9N19W 9N 26W 12N37W...14N46W 9N53W 9N61W...AND IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 9N76W 9.5N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 72W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF 10N
EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WEST TEXAS/
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS CENTER COVERS
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH OF 25N108W 26N103W 28N100W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF MEXICO AND THE GULF
WATERS WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS
EAST OF 90W...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF...STILL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM T.S.
JEANNE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER...DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND COASTAL MEXICO SOUTH OF
24N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 101W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO...CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS EVIDENT IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A LITTLE BIT OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW WEST OF THE WEAK CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF SOUTH OF 13N
WEST OF 72W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE
MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OVER PUERTO RICO TO
15N66W AND 10N64W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE...
AND SOME OF THE JEANNE OUTFLOW IS BEING PULLED SOUTHEASTWARD ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 24N66W AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND IT. SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N36W
28N44W 23N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE 24N53W 29N44W BEYOND 32N37W.
A BUILDING RIDGE IS EAST OF THE UPPER TROF...FROM T.S. LISA
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N31W WITH A 70+ KT JET RIDING UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE AXIS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MORE TO THE
EAST...A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE
CONNECTED BY A SHEAR AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...FROM 22N26W TO 35N16W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
14N53W WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEST OF 48W. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 35W...AND A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES SOUTHWEST OF THIS
FEATURE FROM 10N32W TO THE EQUATOR AT 45W.

$$
MT







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net