[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270634 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 27 SEP 2004

CORRECTION FOR THE DISCUSSION SECTIONS

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTER AT 27/0600 UTC NEAR 30.1N 83.3W
OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. IT IS MOVING NORTH
12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM
THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. LOW TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WAY AT THE PERIPHERY OF JEANNE COVER THE GULF
WATERS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND 91W.

TROPICAL STORM LISA CENTER AT 27/0900 UTC NEAR 19.7N 46.1W...
OR ABOUT 1045 MILES/1680 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING MOVING WEST
10-15 KT. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG
THE WAVE. IT IS MOVING TOWARD T.S. LISA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 6N20W 10N34W 10N43W 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 40W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
TWO INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS...ONE WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF 12N74W.
THE OTHER ONE IS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF 13N76W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WEST TEXAS/
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS CENTER COVERS
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH OF 25N108W 26N103W 28N100W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF MEXICO AND THE GULF
WATERS WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS
EAST OF 90W...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF...STILL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM
T.S. JEANNE. SURFACE TROUGH...POSSIBLY DISSIPATING WITH TIME...
IN SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAD BEEN
NEAR THIS TROUGH...DISSIPATING WITH TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO...CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS EVIDENT IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
A LITTLE BIT AWAY FROM MUCH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...
TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND IN THE AREA
OF THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OVER PUERTO RICO TO 15N66W AND
10N64W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE...
AND SOME OF THE JEANNE OUTFLOW IS BEING PULLED SOUTHEASTWARD ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 24N66W AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND IT. SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N36W
28N44W 23N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE 24N53W 29N44W BEYOND 32N37W.
A BUILDING RIDGE IS EAST OF THE UPPER TROF...FROM T.S. LISA
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N31W WITH A 70+ KT JET RIDING UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE AXIS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MORE TO THE
EAST...A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE
CONNECTED BY A SHEAR AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...FROM 22N26W TO 35N16W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
14N53W WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEST OF 48W. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 35W...AND A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES SOUTHWEST OF THIS
FEATURE FROM 10N32W TO THE EQUATOR AT 45W.

$$
MT





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