[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 270253
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE TAMPA...TALLAHASSEE...JACKSONVILLE...
AND MELBOURNE WSR-88D RADARS...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE JEANNE REMAINS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL STORM EVEN THOUGH IT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING ON BOTH FLORIDA COASTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS ARE
STILL REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BEEN ERODING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SQUALLY RAINBANDS ARE STILL LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND IT SHOULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...OF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...JEANNE
SHOULD GRADUALLY ROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. AFTER THAT...
A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD
CAPTURE JEANNE AND TURN THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA NEAR THE VIRGINIA
CAPES AREA. TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY 96 HOURS....WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AS
THE SYSTEM GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0300Z 29.9N  82.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 31.6N  82.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 35.5N  80.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 37.7N  75.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 41.0N  66.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     02/0000Z 44.0N  47.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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