[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 261452
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THE EYE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTWESTWARD...290/9...OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND IS NEARING THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
WSR-88D DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  THE CENTER WILL PROBABLY
MOVE JUST SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA UPPER WEST COAST THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH OVER THE WATER TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
RE-STRENGTHENING.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JEANNE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP
LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.  A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF A WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...EXITING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 2-3 DAYS...AND ACCELERATING IN THE
WESTERLIES THEREAFTER.  JEANNE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE GUNA CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 27.9N  82.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 28.9N  83.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 30.8N  83.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 33.1N  83.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 35.6N  80.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 40.5N  71.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 44.0N  60.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  48.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
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