[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 260858
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF JEANNE IS NOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA BETWEEN SEBRING AND VERO BEACH...AND IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT
LESS DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA.  DOPPLER
WINDS FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 100-115 KT MOST
OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOW STARTING TO DIMINISH.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 95 KT...WHICH MAY BE A BIT
GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
JEANNE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NOW
CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO
BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD TURN WITHIN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL
RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE
GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE TURN.  THE NOGAPS REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST...TAKING
JEANNE ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND JUST WEST OF TALLAHASSEE...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...TAKING JEANNE NORTHWARD THROUGH
GAINESVILLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...CALLING FOR JEANNE TO PASS NEAR TAMPA
THEN BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER APALACHEE BAY BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC.

JEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE IT MAY WEAKEN SLOWER
THAN IS NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY STILL BE A HURRICANE AT CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE TAMPA AREA.  WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES BRING
JEANNE OVER APALACHEE BAY...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERE IS
ONLY 26C...AND WITH MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STILL OVER LAND THE
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE POOR.  JEANNE
WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN IS FORECATS TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 120 HR.

WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD OCCUR 100 MILES OR MORE INLAND
ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0900Z 27.4N  81.1W    95 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 28.1N  82.4W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 29.7N  83.6W    55 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 31.8N  83.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 39.0N  73.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 42.0N  64.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  52.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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