[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 250240
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. LAST AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 964 MB.  EARLIER A NOAA PLANE MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 107 KNOTS
AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREAFTER...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED ONLY 95
KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND REMAIN AT
5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES FROM ANOTHER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE HURRICANE'S OUTFLOW
AND RAOB DATA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARMER OCEAN BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...SUGGESTS SOME STREHGTHENING AND JEANNE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STRONG
HIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. ALTHOUH WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL
OCCUR...ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD MOTION THAN
ANTICIPATED WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FARTHER INLAND
OVER THE PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO
MAKE THE TURN EARLIER AND SLIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AT
THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INLAND
AND WILL MAKE THE NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED
ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE BIT WESTWARD. EVEN THE GFDL WHICH KEPT THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE OVER WATER IS NOW KEEPING THE HURICANE HUGGING THE EAST
COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0300Z 26.5N  74.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 26.6N  76.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 27.2N  79.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  81.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 29.5N  81.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 33.5N  80.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 37.5N  75.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     30/0000Z 42.5N  66.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER

$$This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net