[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 232031
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  71
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  93.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.4N  95.0W      59  X  X  X 59   FREEPORT TX       29  1  X  1 31
30.2N  95.7W      40  1  X  X 41   PORT O CONNOR TX   9  4  4  3 20
29.6N  96.4W      21  2  2  1 26   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   1  5  6  5 17
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  X  5  5   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  4  7 11
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  2  2
GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W       1  1  1  4  7
BURAS LA           X  1  X  2  3   GULF 28N 93W      10  2  2  2 16
NEW ORLEANS LA     1  1  X  3  5   GULF 28N 95W      13  3  2  2 20
NEW IBERIA LA     86  X  X  X 86   GULF 27N 96W       1  3  6  5 15
PORT ARTHUR TX    99  X  X  X 99   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  2  6  8
GALVESTON TX      54  X  X  X 54

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM FRI TO  1AM SAT
C FROM  1AM SAT TO  1PM SAT
D FROM  1PM SAT TO  1PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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