[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 230256
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE KARL WAS ON A WEAKENING TREND...DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 5.0 FROM SAB. COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE
EYE...WHICH ITSELF IS RAGGED BUT A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF THE T-NUMBERS.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT KARL IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A POCKET OF LOWER SHEAR VALUES BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH
MORE HOSTILE IN ITS FORECAST PATH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT THAT KARL IS
HELD SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS GIVEN THE
RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN BY 48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND
ICELAND.

KARL IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 025/19. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
THEN KARL WILL MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER
THAN THE GFDL AND UKMET BUT OTHERWISE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED PATH-WISE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0300Z 30.0N  47.3W    95 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 32.4N  45.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 36.4N  43.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 41.6N  42.3W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 47.0N  41.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 56.0N  31.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 63.0N  14.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     28/0000Z...EAST OF PRIME MERIDIAN


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