[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 230253
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE BUT CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE T-NUMBERS
REMAIN AT 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. A NOAA PLANE MEASURED 93 KNOTS
AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB. METEOROLOGISTS ON
THE NOAA RECONAISSANCE PLANE INFORMED BY PHONE THAT THE
EYE WAS VERY DISTINCT ON RADAR....AND THAT THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE
NEAR JEANNE WAS ABOUT 26C BUT INCREASED TO 28C ABOUT 100 MILES TO
THE WEST. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER JEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN ALONG THE INCREASE IN SSTS...WOULD FAVOR SOME
STREGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4
KNOTS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS STRONG HIGH SHOULD
BEGIN TO FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOON...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS
THE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW BRINGING JEANNE
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EVEN THE
GFS...WHICH PREVIOULSY TURNED JEANNE NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING
FLORIDA...IS NOW BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER THE PENINSULA. I WAS
TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER WESTWARD...BUT
BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP CONTINUITY...ONLY A LITTLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0300Z 25.6N  69.3W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.6N  70.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  71.5W    90 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 25.5N  73.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 26.0N  75.0W    95 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N  78.6W    95 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 30.0N  80.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 34.0N  78.0W    75 KT


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