[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED 22 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JEANNE CENTER NEAR 26.6N 68.6W OR ABOUT 525 MILES/
845 KM EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AT
22/0900 UTC...MOVING SOUTH 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 68.5W AND 70W...AND FROM
27N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN
64W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN A LINE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N62W 23N65W
20N69W.

HURRICANE KARL CENTER NEAR 25.7N 49.5W OR ABOUT 1500 MILES/
2420 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES...
AT 22/0900 UTC...MOVING NORTH 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LIMITING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF KARL. KARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
WHERE THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH AND COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN IT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 29N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM
23N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W.

TROPICAL STORM LISA CENTER NEAR 14.5N 41.2W OR ABOUT 1100 MILES/
1770 KM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 22/0900 UTC...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55 KT GUSTS
65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 41W AND 42.5W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
35W/36W IS APPROACHING THE AREA OF T.S. LISA FROM THE EAST...

POSSIBLY AFFECTING ITS FUTURE LIVELIHOOD.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570-610 NM WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLAND ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. AN
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11.5N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 14N16W 10N32W 7N37W 6N48W 9N61W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N70W TO 10N87W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM
AFRICA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
27N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE TROUGH...ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA AND
80W...WITH THE BAHAMAS EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHOWS UP WELL IN TAFB
ALL-DAY VISIBLE/NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY...NEAR 25N85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N
TO 28.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 95.5W...AND JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18.5N TO 21N BETWEEN LAND AND 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
1009 MB LOW CENTER FROM 26N TO 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS KEEPING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM MOBILE BAY WESTWARD TO EAST TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF
70W...AND WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N70W 14N76W 17N82W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE BASE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA REACHES
31N55W. SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N51W TO 29N61W TO
30N70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AROUND
HURRICANE KARL CURVES HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOUTHEASTWARD TO
16N30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES THROUGH THE WATERS
JUST EAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO JUST WEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG 20N BUT REMAINS DISRUPTED IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE
KARL AND TROPICAL STORM LISA. DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WEST OF 35W.
MORE TO THE EAST...MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN DIPS INTO THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT




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