[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 220245
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER
OF KARL...POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED
IMMEDIATELY OVER THE HURRICANE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0...5.0...AND 4.5
RESPECTIVELY. SINCE CI NUMBERS ARE STILL UP NEAR 6.0 AND THE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105
KT.

EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL SHEAR HAS DECREASED...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF KARL IS LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT KARL FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE STORM APPROACHES A LARGE
POLAR TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND SSTS COOL...IN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE.

KARL IS NOW MOVING 350/15. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND KEEPS KARL ON AN ACCELERATING NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY THROUGH DAY 3. EXTRATROPICAL KARL WILL
THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION
OF ICELAND DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WESTERLIES.
THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0300Z 24.5N  48.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.6N  49.3W   105 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.1N  48.3W   100 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 31.7N  46.2W    95 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 35.5N  44.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 45.5N  41.0W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 54.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/0000Z 60.0N  22.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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