[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 220229
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES...LISA CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS A RATHER SMALL
BLOB OF CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH SO THE
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THERE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST...WHICH COULD CUT
OFF SOME OF THE INFLOW INTO LISA.  ALSO...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA.  ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE...NOW 285/06. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
LISA IS GOING TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD PLUNGE... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE OR TO THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE
TO THE WEST...GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF LISA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND FASTER THAN THE LATEST FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A 21Z QUIKSCAT
PASS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0300Z 14.4N  40.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.9N  41.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.4N  43.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N  44.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.3N  45.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 16.7N  47.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  48.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N  50.0W    75 KT

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